Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $613,017$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{659,280.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(659,280.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,308$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,781.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,781.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,328$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,568$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(114 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,621.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,621.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(52.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $858$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,383$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,242.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,242.6\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $60$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,926$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(272 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,331.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,331.5\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.84 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.2)}}\) (asimptote \(98.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,048$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,619$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,452.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(99,452.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,298$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,585.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,585.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,604$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,891$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,798.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,798.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $251$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(27.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 92.8)}}\) (asimptote \(262.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $668$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,960$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,629.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 89.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,629.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(155.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $481$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,228$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,305.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 173.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,305.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,456$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 94.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,185$ on 2020-08-25