Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $613,017$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{659,280.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(659,280.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,308$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,781.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,781.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,328$ on 2020-08-25

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,568$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(114 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,621.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,621.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(52.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $858$ on 2020-08-25

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,383$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,242.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,242.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-08-25

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,926$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(272 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,331.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,331.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.84 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.2)}}\) (asimptote \(98.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,048$ on 2020-08-25

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,619$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,452.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(99,452.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,298$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,585.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,585.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,604$ on 2020-08-25

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,891$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,798.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,798.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $251$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(27.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 92.8)}}\) (asimptote \(262.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $668$ on 2020-08-25

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,960$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,629.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 89.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,629.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(18.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(155.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $481$ on 2020-08-25

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,228$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,305.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 173.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,305.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,456$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 94.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,185$ on 2020-08-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 84%
Ghana recovered 81%
Madagascar recovered 78%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 75%
Egypt recovered 55%
South Africa recovered 54%
Malawi recovered 5%

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,717$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,995.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(55,995.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $270$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(11.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{358.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(358.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,604$ on 2020-08-25

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,475$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,836.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $178$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(220.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $805$ on 2020-08-25

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,562$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,563.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 97.9)}}\) (asimptote \(18,563.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $114$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(15.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 84.4)}}\) (asimptote \(128.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,540$ on 2020-08-25

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(219 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,907.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 89.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,907.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $170$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.5)}}\) (asimptote \(178.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,187$ on 2020-08-25